Navigating Uncertainty

City leaders and business executives take decisions every day - on product development, infrastructure investment, and organisational form - that will play out over many years.

In a world of increasing complexity and rapidly changing technology, it can be difficult to make the right choices.

Nobody can precisely predict the future. We can, however, use trends analysis, horizon-scanning and scenario planning to understand how things might play out and what a robust and resilient response would be today. Some mega-trends have such inbuilt momentum that they’re very likely to shape the future context: urbanisation; global heating; ageing population; ubiquitous connectivity. Other disruptors are just coming into view.  And how all these factors will interact is the big unknown.

In the face of these possible futures, we need to discern what’s the best strategy today and how can we future-proof big decisions – like urban infrastructure – that we need to make now. And then organisations need to plan their pathways to the future they want.